A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
