Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
